Simulation of the increase in values and the frequency of precipitation deficiencies for cultivated crops have been carried out for the growing season (April– October). This simulation pertains to the Podkarpackie Province and takes into account following temperature increase scenarios: 1, 2 and 3oC. In this paper the agro-technical level was assumed for the end of the 20th century and sums and precipitation structure was assumed for the long-term period 1901–2000. The agricultural efficiency of precipitation was established using the multi-step regression analysis. This procedure was initiated in order to determine the dependency for dampness of the cover soil in reference to air temperature and precipitation. This study indicates that precipitation frequency during growing season along with precipitation deficiency will increase from 39% (during the period 1901– –2000) to 59, 76 and 92% respectively when we consider the above-mentioned temperature scenarios. There is a 5% probability of the increase of precipitation deficiencies during the period 1901–2000. Precipitation deficiencies will increase scenarios. ...
An important effect of temperature increase due to global warming is the possibility of decreasing agricultural efficiency of atmospheric precipitation as well as the change in the fundamental components of water balance due to increase in evaporation, which is accompanied by the absence of clear precipitation trends in the temperate European zones. The subject of this article is to determine the values of atmospheric precipitation, which during the drought phase should be supplemented with irrigation values so that it does not lower the moisture of the active soil layer in terms of the recent mean levels. We should also take into account different temperature scenarios (1.0, 1.5 and 2.0°C). The multiple-step regression model that has been calculated taking into account the level of soil moisture, air temperature and precipitation indicates that for a mean 10-day period (decade) during the growing season (April-October) the values obtained are 2.2, 3.6 and 5.2 mm, as well as 46, 76 and 109 mm in the entire growing season respectively. This particular model was devised for the city of Poznan and its vicinities, which is situated in north-western Poland. ...
