The paper describes the results of the step-by-step forecasts of annual electric power consumption set out using the models developed based on the deterministic chaos theory i.e. model based on the fractal dimension, Prigogine's logistical model and heuristic crossing model. The forecasts related to rural consumers, and were determined for the areas located within the power service region of four Electricity Distribution Companies. The forecast quality was evaluated based on the absolute errors of expired forecasts. The values of errors of expired forecasts set based on the models developed according to the deterministic chaos theory are 2,3 to 4,7% and prove the usefulness of the models for incremental prediction of annual electric power consumption by rural consumers presented in the paper. Particularly useful for this purposes was the Prigogine's prognostic model. ...
The analysis of time variability of riverbed elevation recorded at four cross-sections of two rivers: Raba and Dunajec was made. The causes of very intense erosion were pointed out, namely: intensive sediment extraction, inadequately carried out river training works including shortcuts and narrowings of riverbeds, and constructions of hydro-technical facilities, disrupting the continuity of sediment transport along the river length. Forecasting was carried out using a local weighted regression method, LOESS. In order to examine how far the length of the historical series influences the quality of forecasts, a comparison was made between the 5-year forecasts based on the 5-year history and the 5-year forecasts based on the 10-year history. The results suggest the need for preliminary data analysis before using a particular version of the model in or-der to take into account the type of variation exhibited by the historical series. ...
The work aimed at the determination of the silting degree and the silting forecast for water reservoirs at Brzóza Stadnicka and at Brzóza Królewska, which are situated on hydrologically uncontrolled Tarlaka stream. The analysis took into account the influence of upper reservoir - Brzóza Stadnicka - on the amount of se-diment flowing into the lower reservoir - Brzóza Królewska. The analysis of the silting process was carried out in three variants. The first one concerns to the Brzóza Stadnicka reservoir, the second to the Brzóza Królewska reservoir, without taking into consideration the upper reservoir, and the third variant took into ac-count the influence of the upper reservoir on the lower one. It was stated that stu-died small water reservoirs were characterized relatively low values of the sediment trap efficiency what causes extension of their useful life. Sediment trap efficiency of Brzóza Stadnicka reservoir determined on the basis of the balance of the volume of sediment delivered and deposited in this reservoir is carried out 27.9%. The somewhat higher value βrz = 38.7% the Brzóza Królewska reservoir is characterizes. It was also stated that the upper reservoir of the cascade had the in-significant impact on decrease of the silting intensity ...
In the paper the verification of precipitation condition forecasts are presented. The forecasts have been developed in the monitoring system of water deficiency and excess conducted by the Institute of Technology and Life Sciences. Analyses were performed for seven meteorological stations within Kujawy Region, south-eastern part of Pomerania and western Wielkopolska in the months of the growing season (April-September) in 2013-2014. Actual precipitation deficit and surplus and their 10-day and 20-day forecasts were determined every 10/11 days for the period of 30/31 days using the standardized precipitation index SPI. Two verification criteria were adopted: the difference between actual and predicted SPI cannot be greater than 0.5 and the agreement of the precipitation category classes. The verifiability is determined as the relative frequency of the forecasts meeting these criteria. It was found that the average verifiability of 10-day forecasts in the study area was high and equal to 80% for the assumed criteria. In the case of 20-day forecasts average verifiability was respectively 52%. ...
