This paper attempts to evaluate rainfall in the context of expected climate changes for the purpose of irrigating plants. For a chosen meteorological station in Central Poland total precipitation was being simulated for conditions current and expected, according to GISS Scenario (GISS Scenario as typical for Poland assumes doubling the CO2 concentration as expected for years 2050-2060). Two 300-year daily rainfall series were compared to analyse periods for crucial irrigating starting in May and ending in September. For the simulated data prob-ability density function of total rainfall were estimated in examined periods and subsequently used for tail area approximation. The results present a slight increase in the average sums of rainfall (up to 5 per cent) in considered periods, as well as much greater height variance (as much as 20 per cent). In the context of irrigation, this means a greater risk of drought and a need for providing water requirements for plants in critical periods.The results suggest a need to use a comprehensive model taking en bloc meteorological variables into account. ...
The aim of this study was to assess the significance of changes of selected climatic indices for irrigation needs of plants in the years 1981- 2010 in the re-gion of Bydgoszcz, located in the zone with the highest desirability of the invest-ment location in terms of irrigation climatic criteria in Poland. The paper uses re-sults of meteorological measurements, carried out in the standard way, in the Research Station of the Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology 'Mochełek', University of Technology and Life Sciences, located approximately 20 km from Bydgoszcz.The study involved 30-year normal period of 1981-2010. A number of me-teorological elements and indicators of meteorological and agricultural drought were taken into account. The calculations were made for the period from 1 May to 30 June. The study results showed no significant trends of change climatic indices for irrigation needs of plants in the Bydgoszcz region over the years 1981 - 2010. In the period 1996-2010 compared to the previous 15 years (1981-1995) it has been stated a while broadening the time variability of precipitation and evapotranspiration, and also of the climatic indices for irrigation needs of plants, calculated on the basis of them. ...
The research was performed to assess the direction, scope and significance of changes of thermal indices in agricultural seasons in the region of Bydgoszcz. Measurements of air temperature were carried out in a standard way, at the' Mo-chełek' Research Centre of the Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology UTP Bydgoszcz, located about 20 km from Bydgoszcz. The study included the normal period of years 1981-2010. The following agricultural seasons were taken into consideration: farming, growing, intensive plant growth, plant maturity and plant dormancy. The results of the research showed no significant trends among all 15 indicators characterizing the thermal agricultural seasons in the vicinity of Bydgoszcz over the years 1981- 2010. In some cases (5 of the 15) was confirmed a broadening of their temporal variability in the years 1996-2010, compared to the previous 15-year period 1981-1995. This may possibly be regarded as a symptom of the observed climate change. Long-term average values of the thermal indices in agricultural seasons examined during the period 1981-2010 were consistent with normative values for the region of Bydgoszcz quoted in publications, which characterize the Polish climate and agroclimate. It confirms the representativeness of the measurement point in Mochełek. The research confirmed a very high ...
Streamflow drought is a period of continuing low flows in river. Depending on the time of year streamflow drought are caused by long-term shortage of preci-pitation or long-lasting temperatures below zero. Streamflow droughts are one of the current problems in the management of water, especially in the light seen in recent years, frequent occurrence of droughts. The goal of this work consists in analysis of long-term changes in selected characteristics of streamflow droughts (duration, deficit) in the Zagożdżonka river at the Płachty Stare gauging station. The Zagożdżonka catchment is situated in the strip of the Central Polish Lowlands, in the region where droughts are the most frequent. The Zagożdżonka small river catchment is one of a few in Poland with long-term records on rainfall and runoff. To identify droughts in daily discharge hydrograms, truncation levels SNQ and Q90% were used. The study did not show a tendency to pre-existing low flow periods in the catchment Zagożdżonka. Analysis of the statistical significance of trends in the course of aggregation of the individual years of deficits of droughts and duration of droughts in the Zagożdżonka river at the Płachty Stare showed a positive trend on the level of significance 0,1. In ...
monthly and annual air temperature in the region of Bydgoszcz in the years 1951-2010, based on measurements from a representative meteorological station located within the Airport Bydgoszcz-Szwederowo. Air temperature measurements were carried out on the plateau, about 3.5 km from the city center. This paper presents a range of changes of the average air temperature, on the basis of selected, calculated elements of descriptive statistics. Regression analysis was performed and the linear function determined direction of studied parameters at a time. In addition, the thermal conditions prevailing in Bydgoszcz were classified based on the method proposed by Lorenc[1994]. The average air temperature in the region of Bydgoszcz, especially in the winter months, was characterized by high temporal variability, appropriate to moderate and transitional climate in Poland. Average annual air temperature was characterized by a statistically significant increase over time, at 0.17 °C per 10 years. There has been a temporary extension of the variability of average air temperature in the thirty-year 1981-2010 in 9 out of 13 examined cases, compared to the previous period 1951-1980. Months classified as normal thermal periods accounted for 40.8% of all analyzed monthly basis, throughout the study period 1951-2010. ...
The paper presents the analysis of the impact of predicted climate change on water demand of late potato in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Meteorological data were simulated with the regional model RM5.1 with boundary conditions from the global model ARPEGE for the scenario SRES: A1B. Reference period was 1971-2000.The measure of crop water demand is potential evapotranspiration. It was calculated using the Penman-Monteith method and crop factors. The impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration of late potato was evaluated in Poland at the five meteorological stations representative for agroclimatic regions: Olsztyn, Bydgoszcz, Warszawa, Wrocław, Kraków. Water demand of late potato will increase of up to 7% in 2021-2050 and of up to 18% in 2071-2100. Increase will be the biggest in the south-west and central-east regions and the smallest in south-east region. Predicted climate change and increased crop water demand should result in increase of irrigated area and irrigation water requirements. ...
The paper presents an attempt to evaluate rainfall in the context of expected climate changes for the purposeof irrigating. Total precipitation for a chosen meteorological station in Central Poland was simulated for current and expected conditions according by means of GISS Model E, HadCM3 and GFDL R15 scenarios (doubling the CO2 concentration is assumed as typical for Poland and it is expected for years 2050-2060). Four 500-year daily rainfall series were com-pared among themselves so as to analyse the crucial irrigating periods from May to September. For simulated data probability density function of total rainfall were estimated in examined periods, and next used for tail area approximation. The presented results show changes of average sums of rainfall (a 30 per cent drop) in the considered periods and scenario, as well as much greater vari-ance (a 20-per cent increase). In the context of irrigation it implies a greater risk of drought and shows the need for ensuring water requirements for plants in critical periods.The results stress the need for using the comprehensive model taking en bloc meteorological variables into account. ...
This paper attempts to evaluate expected climate changes for the purpose of irrigating plants using the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov (HTC). Air temperature and total precipitation were simulated for conditions current and expected for a chosen meteorological station in Central Poland, according to the GISS Scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL (which is typical for Poland assuming the CO2 concentration doubles, as is expected for the years 2050-2060). Four 500-year daily temperature and rainfall series were used for computing the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov, with a 30-day window for irrigating periods, from April to September. The simulated hydrothermal index was presented on a graph during the vegetation period as a course of means, with critical area, standard deviations and probabilities of medium dry, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods.The presented results show changes of average hydrothermal index (up to a 30 per cent drop) in considered periods and scenarios, as well as a 15 per cent variance increase (except GISS scenario). During the four critical months of the year, the estimated probability of extremely dry periods occurring (HTC<0.4) shows two, three and four times the risk of drought for the GISS Model E, HadCM3 and GFDL-R15 scenarios respectively. ...
The purpose of the research was to characterize the variability of relative air humidity in the growing season in the vicinity of Bydgoszcz in the years 1985-2010. The study was based on measurements taken from a representative meteorological station located within the Airport Bydgoszcz-Szwederowo. Standardized air humidity measurements were carried out in a thermometer shelter, by Assmann psychrometer at the height of 2 m above the ground, on the plateau, about 3.5 km from the city center. The study investigated the nature and scope of changes in mean relative humidity by calculating selected elements of descriptive statistics. Based on the linear function of Regression analysis we determined direction of changes and specified the ratio with time of analyzed indicator. The average relative air humidity in the Bydgoszcz vicinity, especially in the spring and summer months, was characterized by a large temporal variability, appropriate to moderate and transitional climate in Poland. The variability of the analyzed indicator in multi-year period 1985-2010 was not statistically confirmed. It was found a temporary widening of variation in 5 of the 7 examined cases in period 1998-2010 compared to the previous period 1985-1997. ...
Recently the so called "green", ecological or sustainable architecture is becoming more and more popular. Energy efficiency of buildings is one of the aspects of this kind of architecture. In our country, the main reason for the growing popularity of the energy efficient buildings is the new buildings' legislation. The new buildings' regulations set up much higher standards for energy performance of buildings than the previous ones. Poland, like all other EU member states, was forced to introduce new energy standards for buildings, by the implementation of the Directive 2010/31/EU. The prospective standards for all new buildings in Poland are on the level of today's low energy buildings. The purpose of introducing such high standards is to reduce the amount of energy used by the building industry in Europe.According to EEA report one of the results of climate change in our region would be longer and more severe heat periods, and some adaptation action should be taken. Probably, according to the new legislation, too little emphasis was put on the overheating risk of the buildings.At present, in Poland, other reasons for constructing energy efficient buildings are of minor meaning. Especially the financial encouragements for small investors are not effective enough. ...
This paper attempts to evaluate a year 2015 from the point of view of present and future expected climate for the purpose of agriculture production using the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov (HTC). Air temperature and total precipitation were simulated for conditions current and expected for a chosen meteorological station in Central Poland, according to the GISS Scenario (which is typical for Poland assuming the CO2 concentration doubles, as is expected for the years 2050-2060). The year 2015 and two 500-year daily temperature and rainfall series were used for computing the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov, with a 30-day window for vegetation periods, from April to September. The simulated hydrothermal index was presented on a graph during the vegetation period as a course of means with standard deviations, and 50% and 90% critical area.The presented results show the year 2015 as dry or very dry within the vegetation period as well from the point of view of future climate changes according to the GISS Scenario. In case of heavy rainfall during the dry period of plant vegetation hydrothermal index show over estimation tendency ...
