Till the late 90-ties of the XXth century the Penman method has been used widely to evaluate the reference evapotranspiration. The ongoing research verified the Penman method and convinced many scientists to look for the modification of his formula, because the calculated values of reference evapotranspiration were too high. Nowadays, the method most frequently used is that of Penman-Monteith. It enables the more accurate evaluation of the atmospheric evaporation ability, therefore it is preferred for the calculation of climatic water balance or drought references. Many modifications of Penman-Monteith method can be found in literature. The authors have analyzed the data from four various regions of Poland and have presented the differences in values of reference evapotranspiration depending on the method of calculation. ...
Meteorological drought can be described with the use of precipitation. The index, in aid of which different kinds of meteorological drought are classified, is the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this study, the authors classify and characterize the droughts in the IV-IX period of the years 1964-2006 in Wrocław-Swojec.
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Two indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI) and relative precipita-tion index (RPI) analyze the same feature, which is either excess or shortage of precipitation. Having known that, the authors compared SPI and RPI with the use of monthly precipitation sums. The choice of this time period was intentional, since in the literature there has been no classification of precipitation conditions for monthly precipitation sums with the use of RPI so far. Therefore, the aim of the study was to determine the relative precipitation index values for monthly precipitation sums based on standardized precipitation index. The described method of transformation from SPI to RPI is innovative and has no equivalent in the literature. Having used the data from Agro- and Hydrometeorology Observatory in Wrocław-Swojec, the authors proposed the method of identification of precipitation conditions for monthly precipitation sums in this region. ...
In the study two methods of counting SPI (standardized precipitation index) are given (McKee i in. 1993, 1995). The first of them is based on the fact that em-pirical distributions of monthly precipitation sums are usually gamma distributed (Kaczmarek 1970). The verification of goodness-of fit test hypothesis of empirical distribution of monthly precipitation sums in the years 1964-2009 in Wrocław-Swojec, with gamma distribution, confirmed that. The second method of SPI eval-uation relies on counting the value: , where F is a distribution function of gamma distribution with parameters estimated on the basis of analyzed data set, and is a distribution function of standardized normal distribution (McKee i in. 1993,1995). In practice, the following fact is often taken into account: for a random variable X gamma distributed, variable has ap-proximately normal distribution (Krishnamoorthy K. i in. 2008). In order to esti-mate SPI, other transformations are tested: and .. With the use of those two methods, SPI for monthly precipitation sums in the years 1964-2009 were evaluated. Then, precipitation conditions for monthly precipitation sums, assessed by SPI counted with the use of gamma or normal distribution, were compared. It has been shown that the ...
This paper attempts to evaluate expected climate changes for the purpose of irrigating plants using the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov (HTC). Air temperature and total precipitation were simulated for conditions current and expected for a chosen meteorological station in Central Poland, according to the GISS Scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL (which is typical for Poland assuming the CO2 concentration doubles, as is expected for the years 2050-2060). Four 500-year daily temperature and rainfall series were used for computing the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov, with a 30-day window for irrigating periods, from April to September. The simulated hydrothermal index was presented on a graph during the vegetation period as a course of means, with critical area, standard deviations and probabilities of medium dry, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods.The presented results show changes of average hydrothermal index (up to a 30 per cent drop) in considered periods and scenarios, as well as a 15 per cent variance increase (except GISS scenario). During the four critical months of the year, the estimated probability of extremely dry periods occurring (HTC<0.4) shows two, three and four times the risk of drought for the GISS Model E, HadCM3 and GFDL-R15 scenarios respectively. ...
This paper attempts to evaluate a year 2015 from the point of view of present and future expected climate for the purpose of agriculture production using the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov (HTC). Air temperature and total precipitation were simulated for conditions current and expected for a chosen meteorological station in Central Poland, according to the GISS Scenario (which is typical for Poland assuming the CO2 concentration doubles, as is expected for the years 2050-2060). The year 2015 and two 500-year daily temperature and rainfall series were used for computing the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov, with a 30-day window for vegetation periods, from April to September. The simulated hydrothermal index was presented on a graph during the vegetation period as a course of means with standard deviations, and 50% and 90% critical area.The presented results show the year 2015 as dry or very dry within the vegetation period as well from the point of view of future climate changes according to the GISS Scenario. In case of heavy rainfall during the dry period of plant vegetation hydrothermal index show over estimation tendency ...
