This paper analysed the direction and the degree of significance of changes in selected indicators of climate risk for grain maize in the long-term period of 1985-2014 for the Bydgoszcz region. On the basis of meteorological data originating from the Research Station of the Bydgoszcz University of Science and Technology in Mochełek, the following unfavourable weather factors for maize cultivation were determined: a shortened period of plant active growth, the occurrence of late spring ground frosts, meteorological droughts and agricultural droughts. On the basis of the research conducted, a high temporal variability was found for weather conditions that are unfavourable for maize cultivation, as such conditions occurred with varied frequency, depending on the type of the adverse factor and the assumed criterion for its determination. No significant trends were found regarding the changes in the examined climate risk indicators for production of maize grain over the period between 1985 and 2014, apart from an increase in the number of moderate and strong late spring frosts. The research demonstrated an increase in temporal variability of the length of the plant active growth period and the occurrence of moderate and strong late spring frosts, as well as a clear decrease in temporal ...
The aim of the present research has been an attempt at evaluating the water requirements of peach trees over 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region drawing on the forecast changes in temperature. The paper draws on the forecasting of mean monthly temperature for the Bydgoszcz region in 2011-2050 according to the climate change scenario for Poland SRES: A1B (Bąk, Łabędzki 2014). The water requirements of the peach tree have been determined based on the indispensable precipitation determined by Kemmer and Schulz. The water requirements were calculated for the period January through December and May through September for each year in the 35-year period (2016-2050). The reference period was made up by a 35-year period immediately preceding it (1981-2015). In 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region, in the light of the forecast scenarios of changes in temperature, one should expect an increase in water requirements of the peach tree. Determined according to the Kemmer and Schulz method, the required optimal annual (January-December) precipitation will increase for peach from 486 mm to 612 mm (by 126 mm, which accounts for 26%). The optimal precipitation time variation trend equations show that in the reference period (1981-2015), calculated based on the Kemmer and Schulz number, the ...
The aim of the present research has been an attempt at estimating the water requirements of sweet cherry tree in 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region drawing on the forecast temperature changes. The paper draws on the forecasting of mean monthly temperature for the Bydgoszcz region in 2011-2050 according to the climate change scenario for Poland SRES: A1B (Bąk, Łabędzki 2014). The water requirements of the sweet cherry tree have been determined based on the indispensable precipitation determined by Kemmer and Schulz. The water requirements were calculated for the period January through December and May through September for each year in the 35-year period (2016-2050). The reference period was made up by a 35-year period immediately preceding it (1981-2015). In 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region, in the light of the forecast temperature change scenarios, one can expect an increase in the water requirements of the sweet cherry tree. Determined with the Kemmer and Schulz method, the required annual (January-December) optimal total precipitation will increase for the sweet cherry tree from 532 mm to 746 mm (by 214 mm, which accounts for 40%). The optimal precipitation trend equations show that in the reference period (1981-2015), calculated with the Kemmer and Schulz number, ...
The aim of the present research has been an attempt at evaluating the water requirements of plum trees over 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region drawing on the forecast changes in temperature. The paper draws on the forecasting of mean monthly temperature for the Bydgoszcz region in 2011-2050 according to the climate change scenario for Poland SRES: A1B (Bąk, Łabędzki 2014). The water requirements of the plum tree have been determined based on the indispensable precipitation determined by Kemmer and Schulz. The water requirements were calculated for the period January through December and May through September for each year in the 35-year period (2016-2050). The reference period was made up by a 35-year period immediately preceding it (1981-2015). In 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region, in the light of the forecast temperature change scenarios, one should expect an increase in the water requirements of the plum tree. The annual (January-December) optimal total precipitation determined according to the Kemmer and Schulz method will increase for the plum tree from 712 mm to 807 mm (by 95 mm, which accounts for 13%). The optimal precipitation trend equations show that in the reference period (1981-2015), calculated, drawing on the Kemmer and Schulz number, the optimal ...
The aim of the present research has been an attempt at evaluating the water requirements of apple trees over 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region drawing on the forecast changes in temperature. The paper draws on the forecasting of mean monthly temperature for the Bydgoszcz region in 2011-2050 according to the climate change scenario for Poland SRES: A1B (Bąk, Łabędzki 2014). The water requirements of the apple tree have been determined based on the indispensable precipitation determined by Kemmer and Schulz. The water requirements were calculated for the period January through December and May through September for each year in the 35-year period (2016-2050). The reference period was made up by a 35-year period immediately preceding it (1981-2015). In the 2016-2050 period in the Bydgoszcz region, in the light of the temperature change scenarios, one could expect increased apple-tree water requirements. Determined with the Kemmer and Schulz method, the required annual (January-December) optimal precipitation will increase for the apple tree from 681 mm to 849 mm (by 168 mm, namely by 25 %). The optimal precipitation trend equations show that in the reference period (1981-2015), calculated with the Kemmer and Schulz numbers, the optimal annual precipitation for the apple tree was ...
The aim of the present research has been an attempt at evaluating the water requirements of pear trees over 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region drawing on the forecast changes in temperature. The paper draws on the forecasting of mean monthly temperature for the Bydgoszcz region in 2011-2050 according to the climate change scenario for Poland SRES: A1B (Bąk, Łabędzki 2014). The water requirements of the pear tree have been determined based on the indispensable precipitation determined by Kemmer and Schulz. The water requirements were calculated for the period January through December and May through September for each year in the 35-year period (2016-2050). The reference period was made up by a 35-year period immediately preceding it (1981-2015). In the period 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region, in the light of the temperature change scenarios made, one should expect an increase in the water requirements of the pear tree. Determined with the Kemmer and Schulz method, the required optimal annual (January-December) precipitation will increase for the pear tree from 624 mm to 771 mm (by 147 mm, namely by 24 %). The optimal precipitation trend equations show that in the reference period (1981-2015), calculated with the Kemmer and Schulz numbers, the optimal ...
The present research has aimed at estimating the water requirements of grapevine in 2016-2050 in the Bydgoszcz region based on the anticipated temperature changes. . The paper draws on the forecasting of mean monthly temperature for the Bydgoszcz region in 2011-2050 according to the climate change scenario for Poland SRES: A1B (Bąk, Łabędzki 2014). The water requirements of the grapevine have been determined based on the indispensable precipitation determined by Kemmer and Schulz. The water requirements were calculated for the period January through December and May through September for each year in the 35-year period (2016-2050). The reference period was made up by a 35-year period immediately preceding it (1981-2015). In the 2016-2050 period in the Bydgoszcz region, in the light of the anticipated temperature change scenarios, one can expect increased grapevine water requirements. Determined with the Kemmer and Schulz method, the required optimal annual (January-December) precipitation will increase for the grapevine from 440 mm to 576 mm (by 136 mm, namely by 31 %). The optimal precipitation trend equations demonstrate that in the reference period (1981-2015), calculated with the Kemmer and Schulz, the optimal annual precipitation was increasing in grapevine in each pentad by 2.2-2.6 mm. In the forecast ...
The aim of the present research was to compare the water requirements of grapevine in the regions of Bydgoszcz and Wrocław in the forty-year period between 1976 and 2015. In the research the authors used the mean monthly temperature values (°C) and monthly precipitation (mm) for the May-September period in the years 1976-2015. The meteorological data for the Bydgoszcz region was derived from standard meteorological measurements performed at the Experiment Station at Mochełek, and analysed at the Department of Land Reclamation and Agrometeorology of the UTP University of Science and Technology in Bydgoszcz. The meteorological data for the Wrocław region were provided by the Swojec experiment station of the Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences. The grapevine water requirements were determined as optimal precipitation assumed by Kemmer and Schulz. It has been found that the grapevine water requirements in 1976-2015, expressed as the optimal annual precipitation according to Kemmer and Schulz, were higher in the Wrocław region than in the Bydgoszcz region and they amounted to 469.3 mm and 435.8 mm, respectively. The grapevine water requirements in both regions in the forty-year period under study showed a growing tendency. A larger increase in grapevine water requirements (27.5-28.0 mm per ...
The aim of the present research was an attempt to compare apple tree water requirements in the vegetation period in the Bydgoszcz region (Poland) and in the Isparta region (Turkey). The paper refers to the 1984-2014 temperature and precipitation values in the Bydgoszcz and Isparta regions. To determine the reference evapotranspiration (ET0), the calculation model by Hargreaves modified by Droogers and Allen was applied. Potential evapotranspiration, identified with apple tree water requirements, was determined using the method of plant coefficients proposed by Doorenbos and Pruitt. In each of the seven months considered (April-October) higher apple tree water requirements occurred in the Isparta region. The highest apple tree water requirements were noted in July and for that month during the thirty-year period they were 167.3 mm and 286 mm, on average, in the Bydgoszcz and Isparta regions, respectively. Daily water requirements of apple trees in July were more than 9.2 mm in the Isparta region and 5.4 mm in the Bydgoszcz region. Apple tree water requirements throughout the vegetation period (April-October) were much higher (by 120 %) in the Isparta region than in the Bydgoszcz region. The highest precipitation deficits occurred in July and amounted to 95.5 mm and 269.1 mm ...
